End Times by Peter Turchin

What is cliodynamics? Formally, it's the process of exploiting hundreds, if not millions, of data points to design a mathematical model that can understand and predict the trajectory of arguably the most complex system in existence : human society.

As Turchin's research, synthesized in this book for the first time for a lay reader, shows, from the Taiping Rebellion, the bloodiest civil war in history, which seriously came close to bringing down the very solid Chinese Empire in the 19th century, to the American Civil War, by way of the French Revolution or Saint Bartholomew's Day, all state collapses stem from the same cocktail of structural causes - conflicts between the powerful born of an overproduction of elites, discontent of the masses produced by an impoverishment of the popular classes, failure of the central authority caused by its poor fiscal health and a very iniquitous wealth pump putting (almost) everyone on edge and inciting the most angry, in increasing numbers, to want to cut off heads by giving free rein to this very natural human propensity which is the search for excuses to hate. So many bad winds over which individuals, strictly speaking, have little control if they remain alone in their corner.