Breaching the Planetary Boundaries...

Back to one of the first posts, that I published before opening "thegoalisthepath" in december 2024. Thus, I guess, that only few of you have seen it, but I also wanted to take it further, with a captivating intervention, On May 25th, at "re:publica" in Berlin, of Jonas Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science at the University of Potsdam. Take half an hour and look at it! Among others, it gives a long term historic view of our planet's heat cycles, which is key to understand why lilmiting global warming to 1,5° is such an important threshold to try not to breach... If the link in the image above does not function, try below :

https://app.wedonthavetime.org/posts/a28c01b8-4834-46af-844e-ac4d3c0dcf00

You will find the intervention on the hope page of a very interesting site, that I have been following for several years now, "We Don't Have Time" :

https://app.wedonthavetime.org

Below, you will find the Executive Summary of the first annual report on our "Planet's Health".

"This inaugural annual report represents a crucial step in monitoring and safeguarding Earth's stability, resilience, and life-support functions — what we refer to as "Planetary Health". Our recently established and fast-growing international science partnership, called Planetary Boundaries Science (PBScience), will work on advancing the Planetary Boundaries (PBs) framework by integrating new data and methodologies while fostering innovative science communication.

The PBs framework analyses and monitors the nine PB processes and systems that scientifically

are proven to regulate the health of our planet. Each of these processes, such as Climate Change

or Ocean Acidification, is currently quantified by one or two different control variables. The 2024

Planetary Health Check report reveals that six out of nine PB processes have breached the safe PB levels, with all six showing trends of increasing pressure in all control variables, suggesting further boundary transgression in the near future (Fig. 1).

FIGURE 1 Planetary Health at a Glance. Just as a blood test provides insights into a human body's health and identifies areas of concern, this Planetary Health Check evaluates the 13 control variables across the 9 Planetary Boundary (PB) processes to report on Earth’s stability, resilience, and life-support functions — the overall health of our planet. The 2024 assessment shows that six of the nine PBs have been transgressed: Climate Change, Biosphere Integrity, Land System Change, Freshwater Change, Biogeo-chemical Flows, and the Introduction of Novel Entities. All of these show increasing trends, suggesting further transgression in the near future. Three PB processes remain within the Safe Operating Space: Ocean Acidification (increasing trend and close to PB), Atmospheric Aerosol Loading (decreasing global trend), and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion (no trend). On the top colorbar, a classic boxplot summarizes the distribution of all 13 control variable values at once. We make this the dynamic symbol of the Planetary Health Check.

The six PB processes that have breached safe PB levels are:

Climate Change (6.1): Atmospheric CO2 levels are at a 15-million-year high, and global

radiative forcing continues to rise, with a persistent warming trend that has acceler-

ated since the late 20th century. Global mean temperatures are now higher than at

any point since human civilizations emerged on Earth.

Change in Biosphere Integrity (6.2): The global loss of genetic diversity and the loss

of functional integrity (measured as energy available to ecosystems) are both ex-

ceeding safe levels and accelerating, particularly in regions experiencing intensive

land use. The vast decrease in biosphere integrity raises concerns that Earth’s bio-

sphere is losing resilience, adaptability, and its capacity to mitigate various pres-

sures, including those from transgressing other PBs.

Land System Change (6.3): As a result of land use and increasingly due to climate

change, global and regional forests have been steadily declining over the last few de-

cades across all major forest biomes. Most regions are already in the High Risk Zone,

well beyond their safe boundaries, while some areas have only recently breached

safe levels (e.g., temperate and tropical America).

Freshwater Change (6.4): Local streamflow and soil moisture deviations have signifi-

cantly increased since the late 19th century, surpassing their respective PBs in the

early 20th century. The increasing variability and instability in global freshwater and

terrestrial water systems signal growing concerns for water resource management

and environmental stability.

Modification of Biogeochemical Flows (6.5): The use of phosphorus and nitrogen in

agriculture has exceeded safe boundary levels, driving significant ecological change.

Breaching this boundary has led to severe environmental impacts such as water pol-

lution, eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and "dead zones" in freshwater and ma-

rine ecosystems. This issue has been prevalent in industrialized countries for a long

time and is increasingly becoming a concern in developing regions as well.

Introduction of Novel Entities (6.9): The global introduction of novel entities — such

as synthetic chemicals, plastics, and genetically modified organisms — is vast, yet

a significant portion of these substances remains untested for their environmental

impacts. This indicates that the boundary is likely exceeded, although exact figures

are uncertain. Novel entities can disrupt critical Earth system processes (e.g., CFCs

notably damaged the ozone layer), harm ecosystems (e.g., pesticides have caused

significant declines in insect and pollinator populations), and lead to long-term, pos-

sibly irreversible changes in the environment, including the contamination of soil and

water bodies and the alteration of natural habitats.

Even though Ocean Acidification is close to transgressing its PB, the three PB processes that

remain within the Safe Operating Space (2) are:

Ocean Acidification (6.6): Ocean acidification is approaching a critical threshold, with

significant declines in surface aragonite saturation, particularly in high-latitude re-

gions like the Arctic and Southern Ocean. These areas are vital for the marine carbon

pump and global nutrient cycles, which support marine productivity, biodiversity,

and global fisheries. The growing acidification poses an increasing threat to marine

ecosystems, especially those reliant on calcium carbonate for shell formation.

Atmospheric Aerosol Loading (6.7): The difference in aerosol optical depth between

hemispheres is decreasing, indicating progress toward safer levels, though some re-

gional patterns show opposing trends. Aerosols influence the Earth's energy bal-

ance by reflecting sunlight back into space and altering cloud formation. This impacts

global and regional climate systems, including temperature regulation, precipitation

patterns, and the distribution of solar energy. Managing aerosol levels is crucial for

maintaining the stability of the Earth's climate system and preventing shifts that could

disrupt weather patterns and ecosystems.

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion (6.8): Ozone recovery has plateaued, with mixed

trends and ongoing challenges in addressing the Antarctic ozone hole. The strato-

spheric ozone layer plays a vital role in shielding the Earth from excessive ultraviolet

(UV) radiation. This protection is essential for maintaining the integrity of the Earth’s

biological systems, as UV radiation can harm phytoplankton, disrupt marine ecosys-

tems, and alter terrestrial plant growth — elements that are foundational to the global

food web and carbon cycle. Stabilizing and restoring the ozone layer is critical for

preserving these interconnected Earth system processes.

A New Era

Humanity has thrived for over 10,000 years within a period of climatic stability and a resilient

Earth system, which has allowed the development of advanced technologies and cultures. How-

ever, as the 2024 PHC report shows, we are now entering a dangerous new era marked by

increasing symptoms of PB transgressions, such as more frequent extreme weather events,

wildfires, reduced plant productivity, and water scarcity. These challenges are compounded by

a still-growing global population that must navigate unprecedented difficulties. Beyond these

immediate concerns, a more profound threat lies in the gradual weakening of Earth system resil-

ience. As we approach — and potentially cross — critical tipping points (5), these slow changes

may not result in abrupt shifts but could lead to irreversible trends, such as accelerated sea-level

rise and self-reinforcing pathways that move us further from the stable, Holocene-like conditions

crucial for human life.

The interconnectedness of PB processes (Interconnections & Drivers, 3) means that addressing one issue, such as limiting global warming to 1.5°C, requires tackling all of them collectively. This holistic approach, though daunting, offers the potential to transform what seems like a burden

into an opportunity for sustainable progress. Reversing the multiple drivers currently pushing

systems toward tipping points can yield synergistic effects of conservation and resilience. Im-

mediate and coordinated global action, involving governments, businesses, and civil society, is

essential to return to the Safe Operating Space (2) across all PBs and secure a prosperous future

for both people and the planet (Solution Space, 9).

A Path Forward

In the near future, PBScience plans to establish a broader Planetary Boundaries Initiative (PBI)

in collaboration with a growing network of partners. PBI aims to provide decision support to

guide global development back into the Safe Operating Space by using the PBs framework as a

scientific accounting system that guides policy, stimulates innovation, and drives transformative

change.

To achieve this, the PHC will play a central role, beginning with annual reports that update on PB

science and human progress toward reaching safe boundary levels. The approach includes in-

troducing new control variables that focus on human-system interfaces, advancing Earth system

simulation models with AI-powered analysis, and developing a near-real-time dashboard with

data to guide investments and paths to safety. The PBI also emphasizes the importance of public

awareness and scientific understanding, with a communications team working to make these

insights widely accessible.