The Oceans, a New Theatre of Geopolitical Confrontations

Lucas Menget has given us permission to publish the article he wrote for the website WARM (Geopolitics in the Age of Transitions), which I also recommend (link at the bottom of the page).

Very interesting, because it is a topic that is rarely addressed in its global aspect, and moreover, essentially seen here from the perspective of the French Navy, whose officers were interviewed by Lucas... Thank you Lucas!

Trade wars, armed conflicts, climate change, and imperial ambitions are rapidly reshaping maritime routes. The sea has become a battlefield where rivalries and ambitions collide. We investigated these upheavals, which the military is closely monitoring...

A few hundred meters from Djibouti's brand-new port, a gray enclosure bristling with walls and watchtowers recently emerged. No visible movement, no windows, but roofs covered with antennas of all sizes, listening to the sounds and conversations of the world. It is absolutely forbidden to approach or photograph. This is the highly secretive Chinese base in Djibouti, built at the same time as Beijing was financing the new terminal at the East African port. It is said to house several thousand soldiers. China has only one military base abroad, compared to 750 for the Americans. But the signal sent by Beijing has been clearly understood. The world's seas are now part of their objectives, for the moment, essentially commercial.

The year 2025, the year of the oceans, shows the extent to which the seas are becoming a central issue in the new global geopolitics. In recent weeks, the trade war unleashed by Donald Trump has disrupted the strategy of major shipping companies, all seeking "connector countries" in Asia or Central America to avoid the customs duties that are now hitting the Central Pacific Shipping Route between Shanghai and Los Angeles hard: US-flagged ships taking over from foreign container ships during a stopover in a port as close as possible to California...

Political decisions, armed conflicts, acts of piracy, and climate change are redrawing the historical geography of maritime routes. New routes, sometimes opened by melting ice, sometimes imposed by attacks, are profoundly transforming the dynamics of international trade and military strategies. Maritime navigation, an essential pillar of the global economy, is thus facing unprecedented challenges and new opportunities. The oceans, silent witnesses to human vicissitudes, are becoming central actors in an unprecedented energy and geopolitical transition.

The military guards the highways of the sea

Captain Thomas Puga, head of the French Strategy and Policy Office of the Naval Staff, is scrutinizing these developments. "We must always remember that maritime space is open and continuous. Due to the absence of law, beyond the limits of territorial waters, it is a space of freedom." To understand the geopolitical stakes of the oceans, we must face reality. "When a French ship crosses paths with a Russian ship offshore, we are neighbors. At sea, we border Russia, as we do any country with a navy," this captain reminds us. He adds that Russian ships regularly cross paths off the coast of Le Havre, at the limit of the 12 nautical miles of the territorial zone: "It's as if you had a Russian tank at Versailles, its gun pointed at Paris, and it's been happening roughly every two weeks since the invasion of Ukraine."

The Montego Bay Convention, signed in 1982 under the auspices of the United Nations, is considered a form of "Constitution of the Seas." It guarantees freedom of movement, whether for merchant or military navies. This is what makes the oceans both majestic and complex, as well as the reality of maritime routes. All nations of the world have the right to navigate, to use the oceans as a means of transport, commerce, or war.

Which gives the oceans the air of a free, global highway: 95% of what we consume passes through the sea, which has become the center of our globalized, fast-moving, and unconstrained economy. Except when climate or wars disrupt this delicate balance inherited from Magellan. Commander Puga emphasizes: "The freedom of the seas allows us to trade everywhere; one of the missions of the French Navy is to protect this freedom of trade."

Houthis cause Suez traffic to plummet

The slightest long-term climatic incident, or the smallest short-term armed crisis, can alter and disrupt maritime routes. The most striking example is the armed conflict launched in support of the inhabitants of Gaza by the Houthi militia of Yemen, supported by Iran. All it took was missile attacks on merchant ships transiting the Red Sea, then the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. It was December 2023, and no one imagined that a Yemeni armed group could alter global maritime routes. But their drones and missiles ended up constraining and threatening to sink ships. Merchant ships from the world's largest companies retreated after 86 strikes and despite the presence of an international coalition (including French, British, and American ships). Within weeks, global shipping companies decided, barring extreme necessity, to change their route and avoid both the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, preferring to extend the route to circumnavigate Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. Traffic through the Suez Canal, one of the world's most important shipping lanes, fell by half by 2024, resulting in a loss of $7 billion for Egypt, for which it is one of its main economic resources.

Commander Thomas Scalabre, who heads the Mica Center ( Maritime Information Cooperation & Awareness Center , the French center for analyzing and evaluating the global maritime security situation) in Brest, is one of the men in the French Navy most concerned by this situation. But he remains optimistic: "This is one of the most significant maritime crises in modern history, but the navies have been able to adapt very quickly: merchant ships lose between seven and ten days of navigation passing through the Cape, but this additional oil cost is offset by the absence of the Suez toll."

The Mica Center is a French Navy expert service dedicated to maritime security, and as such, it provides information to merchant ships and their owners. From the harbor of Brest, the men of Frigate Captain Scalabre study and analyze all events on the ocean surface, in collaboration with their counterparts in Peru, Brazil, Cameroon, India, Madagascar, and Singapore. "We monitor the oceans to protect navigation; it's a NATO mission."

Every hour of the day or night, the sailors of the Mica Center are able to provide and confirm information to shipowners on land or to their crews at sea. "Recently, the rumor of a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz being attacked by pirates made the rounds on VHF (communications radios), which could have had significant consequences for world trade... We were able to deny the rumor to the shipowners, and restore confidence in the strait in a few hours," says the frigate captain, one of whose missions is also to coordinate intelligence and information on piracy and drug trafficking by sea.

Thus, while the maritime world has its eyes fixed on the Houthis, piracy has resumed in earnest off the coast of Somalia, doubling in number by 2024. A practice as old as navigation, today also present in the Singapore Strait, in the Caribbean, off the coast of Mexico, and in the Gulf of Guinea "with heavily armed, highly professional gangs, not hesitating to kidnap for ransom, even if the situation improved somewhat in this area last year." The French Navy, with countries in the region, is conducting high-risk missions to try to disarm and neutralize some of these gangs to keep shipping lanes open. "We only suggest changes to shipping routes when the situation appears uncontrollable."

Narco-pirates disrupt the Atlantic

Similarly, the intensification of drug trafficking between South America and Europe poses formidable problems for navies. Commander Scalabre details new and frightening practices: "It happens that narco-pirates hide on speedboats in the wake of a merchant ship, without being seen on radar, board and hide cocaine in containers, before leaving." The cocaine is then recovered by accomplices in African or European ports, on the other side of the Atlantic. "These events can cause significant damage to shipowners, so we inform them as soon as we have reliable information." Because upon arrival, when European customs decides to inspect a suspect container ship, the cost of immobilizing the goods can climb to 10,000 euros per hour! "Shipping companies are pragmatic: if a line becomes too dangerous and no longer profitable, they abandon it and find another route," warns the captain. And it's a part of the globalized economy that is immediately affected.

Another area of high geopolitical tension is the South China Sea, a symbol of Beijing's territorial claims. China is building artificial islands and deploying military infrastructure there, drawing the ire of its neighbors, notably Vietnam and the Philippines. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague invalidated Chinese claims to a large portion of the sea, but Beijing simply refused to recognize the decision. Chinese merchant ships, manned by civilian military personnel, regularly attack Filipino or Vietnamese fishermen to assert their sovereignty in the area. This confusion between merchant and military shipping is skillfully maintained to create maximum fear and tension, and ultimately result in a fait accompli.

Panama in Trump's sights

In the longer term, the main concern of naval and merchant navies is climate. If Donald Trump has taken care, since his inauguration for a second term in the White House, to put maritime routes at the center of his thunderous declarations, it is with a clear objective: to ensure American dominance in the face of the Chinese giant, the world's leading exporter, 80% of whose goods transit by sea. And which continues to invest in ports to ensure the passage of its stocks. China has made no secret, since a 2016 law, of its intention to requisition civilian ports for military purposes in the event of a major crisis. This has not escaped Donald Trump and his advisors...

As early as January 20, the American president announced his intention to take control of the Panama Canal, which connects the Atlantic to the Pacific. This 77-kilometer-long trench, built by the Americans but returned to the Panamanians in 1999, until recently saw nearly 14,000 ships pass through it annually, representing 3.5% of world trade.

Two factors are worrying Washington: first, Chinese investments in the canal terminals, and the recent drying up of the lock basins, due to the El Niño phenomenon, reinforced by global warming, which has led to a significant reduction in traffic (from 34 to 27 ships per day) forcing ships to bypass the continent via Cape Horn, also lengthening the route and increasing costs. This is why compasses are looking north and towards the Arctic, because one day soon it will be necessary to choose between the winds of the Horn and the ice of the Bering Strait.

New passages in the Arctic

The Northwest and Northeast Passages, long considered a pipe dream by explorers, are now becoming a tangible reality thanks to global warming. Located in the Arctic, these passages offer an attractive alternative to traditional routes. By reducing the distances between Asia and Europe by 30%, they promise substantial savings in terms of time and fuel. But navigation in Arctic waters remains perilous, with increased risks of collisions with icebergs and extreme weather conditions. Moreover, port infrastructure and emergency services are still limited in this region, raising crucial questions about the safety of crews and ships.

In his Paris office, Commander Puga is adamant: "We're not there yet, but we have to prepare for it. For the moment, there aren't enough ports for the flow to be massive, but we can't let the Russians impose a fait accompli strategy in the region and become masters of the Northeast Passage." For the moment, the Russians have a considerable lead, being the only ones to possess and use nuclear icebreakers, capable of opening access routes to resources in the Northeast, or of allowing commercial ships to pass through.

Shipping companies must also consider environmental risks and international regulations. While the IPCC report estimates that the Northwest Route could be ice-free for part of the year by 2040, Arctic shipping requires compliance with safety and environmental standards, requiring specially designed vessels and crews trained for polar conditions. Not to mention that the trend is toward reducing ships' fuel consumption rather than increasing it.

On April 11, in London, the member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) approved by a majority for the first time a carbon pricing system for freight. The goal of carbon neutrality, sometime around 2050, is currently incompatible with the opening of polar routes. While the European Union countries have signed, Russia has not ratified it, and the United States did not take part in the vote and has threatened retaliation against the signatory states.

The new Arctic shipping routes also pose strategic challenges for navies. The increased presence of commercial vessels in these regions requires enhanced surveillance to ensure national security and sovereignty. Maritime powers are intensifying their efforts to assert their presence in the Arctic, leading to an arms and technology race. For Commander Puga, "climate change is creating geopolitical opportunities, through windfall effects." The main interest of the Northeast Route is the transport of Russian gas, oil, and minerals extracted from Arctic resources. Thanks to their icebreakers, the Russians have opened this sea route nine months a year!

In 1519, before King Charles V, the Portuguese navigator Magellan promised to open a new sea route through the West. The first European to sail the Pacific Ocean, he would not return from this voyage. But his legacy was oceanic globalization. It took five centuries for this system to experience its greatest turbulence, and a maritime order to evolve.

Check the site, WARM, unfortunately, only in French at this stage :

https://warm.2050now.com